We're seeing more inventory and less sales. This June/July marked the worst for home sales in the last 25 years. Sellers are having to wait longer and do price reductions to get things sold. Most buyers are seemingly waiting for better rates or better pricing before pulling the trigger. It's understandable, the affordability is out of touch with people's income.
We know President Trump has been hounding the Fed Chairman to reduce rates. They have held steadfast and we're seeing the stagnation in the real estate market. Most of the sellers are looking at comps to justify their ask price but I think we're going to continue to see a down trend in prices. Something has to give and if rates remain in 6's, then the only other item in the equation is price.
A 2% decline in home values is that the current consensus is for 2025. That seems to be on par or even conservative. Most folks have a good rate for 2+ years ago and are looking to stay put. The move up buyers aren't there! The math doesn't work. You're not going to pay a couple thousand more a month for a slightly nicer house than you currently have.
Most if not all the sales I have been involved with recently are life events. Death, divorce or change of job. There's also no shortage of people leaving California. I just closed an house in Folsom and the seller determined that he can put an extra $600,000 in his 401K over the next 10 years by moving out of CA. The state taxes are rough on W-2 employees. 13% if I'm not mistaking and if you make $250,000 a year that adds up.
With any luck, we'll see the economy as a whole improve once all the tariffs are negotiated and we'll see in increase of businesses coming to America, which means more jobs. Come Sept I think we'll see a rate drop. There's skepticism over Trump policies and how this will play out but I am of the opinion that we'll fair well once the dust settles. Time will tell!
