Thursday, November 8, 2018

Placer County Real Estate - Days on Market and Sales Price/List price percentage

I always like this graph that Trend Micro puts out every month.  It's very easy to read and it give a good visual of how the real estate market is going in Sacramento and Placer county.  The green line is simply showing that sellers are having to come off their asking price around 5% to get it sold.  This is a solid indicator that the market has shifted to more of a buyers market.  Back in the spring of 2018, sellers were getting almost 100% of ask.  Some sellers were getting over asking, that's how that percentage is almost at 100%.
The orange graph is representing the days on market to sell.  I'm scratching my head a bit with these numbers because on another graph I noticed the months of inventory is at 2.7.  There's a correlation here...  We can see that the DOM has increased along with the number of houses for sale so that does make sense.
The biggest thing to take away from this is that properties are selling on average 95% of asking price. 
Prop 5 not passing is going to add to the slow down.  I was holding out hope that prop 5 would pass.  That would have helped seniors move closer to their families and bring their property tax basis with them.  I had several folks from the bay area that were counting on that; however, looks like they're not moving now.  Can't say I blame them!
If you have any real estate questions, feel free to give me a call.

Thank you,
Chad Phillips
Remax Gold
DRE# 01405825

Thursday, October 18, 2018

reverse mortgages

I just went to a lunch and learn about reverse mortgages yesterday.  Being in the business I had a rough idea of what a reverse mortgage was and how it works, but I really didn't.  There's multiple different reverse products and some can really make sense for some folks in particular situations.   I was made aware of a new where you obtain a reverse mortgage but it becomes a credit line.  You get the going rate plus a half a point and it will compound.  The longer you wait to pull the cash the more it grows.  Very interesting, it also get the gears going for me wondering where they put that money.  They have to be putting it somewhere in order to pay the gains.  The question is out to Big Valley mortgage now. 
The traditional reverse can work for people that are looking to more financial freedom in the golden years.  If you don't have kids and not really worried about leaving an inheritance, then a reverse is perfect.  Maybe you do have kids but you have other assets that you set aside for them.  Using a reverse mortgage can be the ticket.  It's becoming more popular that I ever imagined.  The baby boomers are getting to the age and they like the bigger and better.  They're not as conservative as their parents were.  I'm skeptical of the stat, but I was told 47% of the baby boomers are moving up, not down.  I thought it would have been around 10% of boomers moving up.  Typically seniors buy down, the kids are gone, don't need as big a place anymore.  Not our boomers!  lol.  A true testament to capitalism.
If you have questions about reverse mortgages, you can get in touch with Jeff Silver 916-204-4653

Friday, October 12, 2018

Octoberfest in Roseville Real Estate update

I can't recall how long it's been since my last Placer County / Sacramento County real estate update, but I know it's been a couple months.  Just like the season changing to fall, our market has hit the breaks.  We're seeing the market shift to more of a buyers market.  Inventory is up and less buyers out and about.  Rates are along climbing so it's having a negative effect on prices too.
We have real estate investors out there that are on the fence.  As investors we want to buy when the market is low and sell high... just like stock market and there's the general consensus that the market will continue to decline.  In my opinion, yes.  I think the market will pull back more; however, I just bought a rental property last month.  When I ran the numbers, it made sense to do the deal.  I put down 25% and I'm cash flowing $500 a month.  I did also have to put in 15,000 in improvements after closing escrow, but it should be a solid property with little to no issues for me in the near future.  I needed a write off, this is also going to help me come tax time.  There are a multitude of factors that go into an informed decision to buy a rental.  Having a good realtor/broker like myself to help guide you is important.  With me you'll get my experience in construction too.  I'm not saying I'm a licensed contractor, but I've worked for a home remodeling company and I've done enough work on my own properties to know what needs to be done and what it should cost.  I also have the people to recommend to get work done too. 
Back to the market, I do think we'll see a pull back in pricing.  It's not going to be substantial, 2-5% and we've already see a portion of that.  Interest rates are going to effect what people can afford to buy in Roseville.  I have clients that are considering parts of Citrus Heights because the prices are lower compared to Roseville.  There are pros and cons, school scores, different county! 
After checking the stats we're seeing a tend that is to be expected this time of year.  A decline in sales and values are part of the normal trend, it's cyclical.  Is there more to it?  I think we dealing with both a market correction and normal trend that the market slows this time of year.  We've been going up and up since 2012.  Cannot go on forever!  At the end of the day, if you're needing a place to live and you can qualify and comfortable with the payments, buy it.  It will be better for you in the long run vs renting.  Any questions, feel free to give me a call.  Your roseville real estate agent singing off.

-Chad Phillips
Re/Max Gold
DRE # 01405825

Monday, August 20, 2018

I think its about time for another real estate update.  We're at the end of summer here in 2018, the kiddos are back in school now.  What can we expect the housing prices to do in Placer county for the rest of this year and next?  It certainly seems like we're in the mist of uncertainty.  It's like we're in a holding pattern right now and more inventory keeps coming.  The market has shifted from a sellers market in the spring, to a buyers market now.  The demand is lower than the inventory.  Interest rates also have influenced buyers and investors in Roseville & Rocklin area.  Historically 5% is really good, but people got used to rates in the 3's then 4's.  I'm in escrow buying an income property and I've locked my rate at 5.25%.  The numbers work with me putting down 25%.  It's a house in citrus heights that I'll be able to cash flow $400 a month.  I couldn't think of a better place to park some cash. 
I have 5 listings on the market right now that are all priced well.  One in cirby ranch in Roseville, one in Fair Oaks, one in Rancho Cordova and a condo in Rocklin.  With several more listings coming soon we're wondering where the buyers are.  The condo shows like it's a brand new model.  3 bed 2 bath for 227,000 and we have nada.  We hope that this dip is more indicative to the time of the year because this is normal and not a precursor to a market correction that we're due for.  Your guess is as good as any.  My advise would be to buy and hold as long as the numbers make sense.  If it's for your primary then make sure you're comfortable with the payments because you might be looking to stay put for a while.    Let's not use our houses as penny banks and refi out the equity.  As you can probably guess, I'm pretty conservative, much more so than some of the investors I work with.  Until next time...  Feel free to call me with your roseville real estate needs.
Chad Phillips - Re/Max Gold

Wednesday, June 6, 2018

Folsom Real Estate Market Update

It's easy to say that a seller in Folsom is ideal.  I just ran a quick market summary and the findings weren't that suprising to me because I have buyers that I can't find a house for in Folsom right now.  Take a gander at this:

List price / Sales price at 100%  Days on market 18. 
If you take into account the houses that are way over priced and sitting on the market, the real picture here is that houses coming on the market priced accordingly are selling in the first week and at or over asking price. 
Multiple offers are driving this market even higher.  We're starting to see appraisal issues, but we're still getting deals done. 

 We need more inventory!  They can't build the new homes in Folsom fast enough.  This trend looks to be strong and go to the end of Trumps first term.  What happens from there is anybodies guess.  

If you have questions or looking to buy/sell, give me a call.


Chad Phillips Real Estate Broker Associate  RE/MAX GOLD
916-390-1476 2998 Douglas Blvd #125 Roseville CA.  95661 | |
LIC # 01405825

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Placer County 1st Quarter Update - Real Estate

Re/Max Gold - Chad Phillips

It should be to no surprise that our real estate market is strong and continuing upward.  I pasted 3 graphs below to help illustrate what is more precisely occurring.   I want to point out on the last graph.  The sales price vs list price for the month of April was at 100%.  This is something to take note of and it means that properties are being priced appropriately and there's little to no room to negotiate as a buyer.  Well priced properties are selling over asking with multiple offers.  
You can see on the 2nd graph that the average price sqft has continued to climb with only a little dip in Dec. 
We have the influx of buyer from the bay area and the millennial buyers are a growing market segment.  It looks like we'll have a continued strong year, too early to say for next year.  I'm always skeptical because I know the real estate market is cyclical and we're about due for a correction.
To bring this current, I've notice a slow down over the past week or so.  I think its attributed to all the graduations and holiday weekend coming up.

If you have any real estate questions, feel free to contact me.

For Sale Vs Sold & Pending

Average Price Per Sqft

Average Days on Market / Sales Price vs. List price

Chad Phillips Real Estate Broker Associate, Re/Max Gold
916-390-1476 | 2998 Douglas Blvd #125 Roseville CA. 95661 | |
 LIC # 01405825

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Spring time real estate update placer county

Seems like it's been a while since I did an update but it was only a month ago.  Also feels like a lot has changed in that time.  The weather is finally coming around to resemble spring/summer and so is our real estate.  Things are picking up quickly.  I was wondering if the influx of inventory was going to throw the balance off, but we see to be in the same equilibrium as before, so the buyer pool as jumped up too.
From this time last year we're looking at around 3-5% growth in equity.  That's a good market indicator that we're in for another good year; however, there are a few things that concern me for next year.  Right now we're seeing the 10 year treasury bonds at 2.8% and the 30 year at 3%.  They're getting closer and closer.  Every time I can recall when these numbers inverse, we see a market correct. (notice I didn't want to say depression)  Another factor that's probably going to put the breaks on prices is interest rates.  A stronger economy will benefit overall from a raise in the rates but it will effect the purchasing power of everyone.  At the end of the day it's all about the monthly payment.  If I could buy a million dollar house for 2,000 a month, sign me up. 
I just put two houses on the market in west roseville, 95747 and both sold relatively fast.  One in the first week, and the other in two weeks.  The buyers are out there, seem like we have a fair amount of bay area buyers.  To follow up on the point above about the market correction next year, I don't think the amount of buyers from the bay will sustain us.  Those buyers tend to be in the mid market range, 400-600K.  Most of them are buying down and paying cash.  For the lower end, under 400K we will have plenty of competition, but the biggest hit will be above 750k.  The new tax law will also come into play with the higher priced properties.  Only being able to write off 10K a year in taxes is real.  My house is only 450K and after sales tax I'm maxing out right at 10K.  If we go and buy anything bigger then we'll loose out on the tax.  It's not really a concern for me; however, for the people out there will million dollar homes, they're going to notice it come tax time.
Here's my advise: if you're looking for a primary then buy and lock a good rate.  For investments, I would sit on cash until the market changes.  It's tough to find anything out there that cash flows.  You have to put down 20-25% for it to pay for itself.  I'm not a fan at that cost.
No one know, and I hope I'm wrong but we seem to be in a 7 year cycle.  The market started its upward trend in 2012.  That puts us at 2019 for a correction.  Is this exact science, of course not but we're due.  Been going up and up to where costs are exceeding jobs and sustainability.  To keep this going we're going to need some more creative loans.  In fact, they're already starting that game again so the writing is on the wall.  I have several investors right now liquidating!
If you're looking to buy or sell, give me a call.

Re/Max Gold - Chad Phillips


Monday, March 26, 2018

Placer & Sacramento Real Estate Update

When you get down to it, the value of a commodity is derived by supply and demand.  In Placer and Sacramento area we've seen a low supply of houses for quite some time.  In a typical "normal" market we expect the amount of inventory to last 2-3 months.  In the last 3 years or so it's been below 2 months of inventory and closer to 1 month. 

These figures take into account the oddball houses, over priced properties, land, and the high end multi million dollar properties that tend to take a year to sell.  So, when you're looking for a 2,000 sqft single story in Roseville you shouldn't be surprised that they go like hot cakes.  We're seeing values of these types of properties, ie... large lot, single story with a pool going well above expected appraised value.  When buyers are willing to throw in cash to cover the difference, that's what it take sometimes to seal the deal.  These listings are getting multiple offers driving the prices up.  On this note: I have a nice single story in W. Roseville coming on the market in about 2 weeks.  It's 2200 sqft single story by Foothills/Junction. 

Back to the story, I think we'll see a continued increase of inventory this spring.  It normally picks up this time of year; however, so the the amount of buyer so we could very well stay at this equilibrium.  Other factors are the feds, jacking up rates.  For folks like myself, I'm happy with where I live and I'm at 3.5% fixed 20 year.  I really don't have a desire to move!  I think there's a growing number of people that want to stay put and not rock the boat.  There is a point thou, that people will decide to sell, take the money and run.  More and more people are doing just that and leaving the state all together. 

My forecast is simple, we're towards the of this roller coaster ride again.  I think we're going to see market correction again, and as soon as this winter.  Now I'm not suggesting a crash or anything like we went thru before, but just a simple 5-7% reduction.  Enough to notice that 2018 was another peak!  Only time will tell, I would like for this to continue, don't get me wrong.  Business has been great. 

Feel free to contact me if you have questions.
Re/Max Gold - Chad Phillips

2998 Douglas Blvd #125
Roseville, CA. 95661

Friday, February 9, 2018

Roseville Real Estate - Market Update

This is about the time when I thought the market would pick back up, right after the Superbowl... and it has!
We're seeing inventory increase as people are looking to get their house listed and sold before the spring flood of properties.
With the increase of inventory coming and a likelihood of increased interest rates, will we see a drop in home prices?  I don't think so, not here in Sacramento / Roseville area anyways.  I believe our demand for housing will be in align with supply.  We have a lot of people coming here from the Bay and other areas that see us as an affordable place to live.
I'm getting ready to put 6 houses on the market.  Winter is a nice time for us agents as things slow down, but I'm looking forward to getting out and selling more houses in Roseville.
I have a great 2200 sqft single story in Roseville that I'll be listing shortly.  Those single story homes are in high demand.  Currently there's only 7 houses listed in MLS that are single story in that price range 450-500K and 5 of them are new construction which we all know have zero lot lines and no landscaping.