2024 real estate projection in Placer, Sacramento and El Dorado Hills real estate market

There's a general conscientious that the real estate market as a whole will improve in the coming year.  We're expecting interested rates to tick down further which will help overall affordability for home buyers.  On top of interest rates expected to come down we're estimating that prices will remain stagnate with more likelihood of coming down slightly.  Zillow and other online real estate companies are suggesting a decline in Roseville home prices around 1.4% in 2024.  This is a small percentage, I'm sure the over under percentage of error in the estimate is higher than the prediction.  I can tell you that we've seen new home construction cranking out houses in 2023.  New homes accounted for 25% of all home sales in Placer, Sacramento and El Dorado counties in 2023.  They will continue to build new homes as home builders have projects lined up.  Some of the larger projects like Folsom Ranch is going to be under construction for 3-4 more years.  Foslom ranch is going to be beautiful when it's all done and built out.  Some of the features I've seen with the commercial and shopping centers there will be amazing.  Personally I think they need to address the traffic there at E. Bidwell.  It can be crazy around 5-7pm.  Those new homes in Folsom are on small lots and going for big money, around 1 million.  I've already sold a house in there, it was a resale 3600 sqft for 950K, and that was almost 2 years ago.  I think we'll continue to see people say put with there sub 5% interest rates and the market will be mostly folks moving for work and life changes; such as, divorce, marriage, death...  Plenty of people are wanting to move up but I think the numbers have to make more sense before people want to take on more debt.  

When it comes to the industry, we're seeing more and more people getting out of the business.  Lenders, real estate agents, title officers and so on are finding themselves in a situation where they are depleting all their cash and need to get a new job.  At the end of the day, there's simply not enough transactions to support the amount of people that got into the business.  This is a cycle and trend and I've seen it before.  When the Roseville real estate market is hot, then people jump on the band wagon, but when things get tough it thins the herd.  I've been at this for 20+ years now so I've been able to work multiple angles to generate business.  Some of my new clients come via google, but most of my business comes from repeat clients and professional referral.  I specialize in partition sales so I've networked with attorneys in the area to assign me as the listing broker in those situations.  I've also focuses on land development thru clients and I'm also doing my own subdivision in Roseville.  It's only 10 lots on Main St. in Roseville; however, it's been a great first hand experience as to the process.

At the end of the day, it's a good time to buy a house in Roseville area.  Make sure you have a good local lender, I can recommend several if you need.  As long as the monthly payment is in your budget, it's likely you'll be able to refi in the near future and get that payment even lower.  If not and rates go up then you'll still be happy with your rate and payment.  Another key is to have a broker like myself who knows most of the other brokers in town to help negotiate on your behalf.  People tend to be more frank and forthcoming with people they know.  

I look forward to another productive and exciting year selling real estate in Roseville 2024!

Sacramento / Placer / El Dorado Hills Real Estate Update Fall 2023

 We're in interesting times.  A time where I'm uncertain what the future holds.  I usually have a better gut feeling about the market as a whole and what to expect for the coming year.  Thus far, we've seen housing prices hold steady with the rise in interest rates.  Currently sitting around 7.75% on a traditional 30 year conventional loan.  The monthly cost of buying a home has shot up immensely and to put things into prospective:  A $500,000 loan at 3% PI is around 2108 a month.  Now with rates near 8% you're looking at a PI cost of 3668.  In just 2 years the same monthly out of pocket cost shot up nearly $1600 a month.  This isn't peanuts folks!  I wonder if prices will come down to balance affordability; however, inflation is having a negative effect on the dollar.  It's not that house values have come down but the dollar has be devalued.  With the current course of actions of those in charge in our government, this problem is only being exacerbated.  They keep printing more money to fix problems.  Many economist are expecting a recession or worse in the near future.  Some would argue it's already here.  Michael Burry who predicted the 2008 crash and bet against the housing market put a big wager in.  1.6 Billion put on the S&P and stock market to drop in the next 6 months.  He's a numbers guy and I hate to think it but he's probably right.  If people start to panic and withdraw we could see a massive collapse and the dollar devalued even more.  A lot of people a looking for ways to hedge against large losses.  Commodities are popular, like gold and silver.  I like the idea of something tangible.  No funny money bit coins for me but that's my opinion.

Are we going to see a wave of foreclosures in the Sacramento region again?  It's not looking so with the date we have.  Yes, we'll have an uptick in foreclosures; however, it will likely stay at an acceptable range.  There's a lot of Americans that are hunkering down and locked in at 2-3% so they can weather the storm.  Nearly 1/3 of Californians have their house free and clear.  This is obviously a good place to be in.  This is not the time to over leverage your position.  With that said I think you can deduct that I'm financially conservative.  I have clients that let it ride and take big risks.  I just don't have the stomach for it and I need to be able to sleep at night.

We're going into an election year with the world unstable in the middle east, Russia and even China with Taiwan.  There's a lot more variables and uncertainty coming 2024.  If Iran gets a nuke, it's plausible that starts WWIII.  I'm not a dooms day person, just looking at the global issues that are effecting us here.  With more continued and heightened conflict we can expect energy pricing to continue to rise.    Energy prices are what hits our pocket book the most.  I'd like to see the US change some policies that would help us but the Biden admin seems to be more concerned with continued control of the county.  

For home buyers in the area, I would want to make sure you are comfortable with the current payment with hopes to refi in the near future.  There are some short term buy down products that might be a good tool to use.  I can recommend several good lenders that will give you as a buyer all your options and make suggestions with your risk tolerance.  

Let me know you're thoughts and if you have any real estate needs.

Re/Max Gold - Chad Phillips

Cell: 916-390-1476

Fall 2023 real estate update Placer / Sacramento / El Dorado Hills

 Well folks, it shouldn't be to anyone's surprise that rates are around 7% right now.  This is a factor that cannot be ignored when calculating the monthly payments on your mortgage.  There are several ways to try and subvert this; however, I'm not a fan of loan programs that get creative.  There's always the down side to them.

Most people are holding steady at this point.  If you already own a house, then you likely have a rate in the 3's, or better yet in the 2's.  I'm right there with you at 1.99% on a 15 year.  I'll never sell!  Like myself, this is driving the inventory to lows we haven't seen since 1994.

The majority of listing right now are divorce sales, forced sales, hardships situations.  It's become a tough environment for real estate agents.  There simply isn't enough sales to support the amount of licensed agents in the area.  It's effecting loan officers too.  People are having to leave the business in order to get a pay check.  I've been fortunate that I've been doing this for 20 years and I've been able to build up my relationships where I've staying busy, but it's much slower than last year.

I think most people were expecting prices to recede when rates got up this high. It makes sense when you're thinking about affordability, but this really hasn't been the case.  Prices are still holding steady.  It looks much more likely for rates to come down by the end of the year and more next year going into an election year.

I'm working with some developers as new construction is still going strong.  We have a shortage of properties so the home builders haven't slowed down.  Costs are up and they're doing some creative financing to get rates down in the 5's for buyers.  I have a new project in El Dorado Hills that I'm working on.  This is a new gated community with 1 acre lots.  These lots have views of downtown Sacramento and Folsom Lake.  There's a total of 42 lots that span out among 113 acres.  Prices start at $465,000.  We're taking reservations at this point.  Final map is expected in 3 months.

I have another development in Roseville on Main St.  On the corner of Main St. and Porter is 2.5 acres that I've mapped for 10 lots.  These are .25 acre lots.  This is a good size where you can put a main house and an ADU.  It's not on MLS as I'm still awaiting the final map.  Currently in the 2nd final map submission.  It's likely going to take 4 submittals.  

I have several new listings coming up soon.  A duplex in Roseville, 2 partition sales in Sacramento, small house in Orangevale.  

Let me know if you have questions!  

Re/Max Gold - Chad Phillips

916-390-1476

Partition Action - Forced sale of a property

A referee is a neutral third party appointed by the court to oversee the partition action and ensure that it is carried out fairly. In the context of real estate, the referee's duties may include determining the value of the property, overseeing the sale of the property, and distributing the proceeds among the co-owners.

The referee may also be responsible for resolving any disputes that arise during the partition action, such as disagreements over the value of the property or the distribution of proceeds. In some cases, the referee may need to hire appraisers or other experts to assist with these tasks.

Overall, the partition action and the role of the referee can be complex and involve a lot of legal and financial considerations. However, with the right guidance and expertise, it is possible to navigate this process successfully and ensure that all parties involved are treated fairly.

The above was my first attempt using ChatGPT.  Pretty dry stuff!

I mention partition sales as I specialize in them.  I'm currently working on 3 partition sales right now.  It's when there are muliple owners of a property and one forces the sale.  These situations usually include unmarried couples that break up or siblings that inherit a property and one doesn't want to sell.  It's usually the one living in the property at no cost.  If you own any percentage of a property in California, you can force the sale.  The other party will have first right of refusal to buy you out, but most often that isn't an option for the opposing party.

An attorney is usually involved in these situations and they seek an interlocutory judgment.  From this point a real estate broker is recommended to the court to be the referee.  I say that openly as the referee doesn't need to be the real estate brokerage that is going to list and sell the house; however, that's been the case for every partition that I've done.

Once I'm assigned as referee to a property, I become an officer of the court.  I need to take control of the property and have authority to sign on behalf of the owners at title.  Of course it's my duty to get the most money I can for the property and oversee the disbursement.

Most of the partition action files I've been involved in are in Sacramento County.  I have done several in Placer county.  The location has no effect on the process.  Every partition has it's own challenges.  For example, I had one last year where I ended up having to sell the property for cash, and never had a chance to see the property.  The cash buyer didn't either!  The sheriff's department decided not uphold the eviction and didn't want to evict an owner from their house.  At the end of the day, it cost him and his sister around 100K.  I would have been able to sell the property for much more had there been adherence to the court order and some cooperation.  

Partition sales are a small portion of my business here selling houses in Roseville.  It's a small niche market that most agents don't even know about.  

Remax Roseville CA Broker Associate

 Welcome to the bustling city of Roseville, California, where the real estate market is thriving! As a Remax real estate agent in Roseville, I'm excited to share with you some insights about the current state of the Roseville real estate market.

Over the past few years, Roseville has experienced tremendous growth, with more and more people flocking to the city for its excellent amenities, beautiful landscapes, and thriving economy. The result? A highly competitive real estate market, where both buyers and sellers need to be savvy and well-informed to achieve their goals.

For buyers, Roseville offers a wealth of opportunities to find the perfect home. From cozy townhouses to spacious family homes, Roseville has it all. As an experienced real estate agent, I can help you navigate the market and find the home that meets your unique needs and budget. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or a seasoned investor, I'll work with you every step of the way to ensure a smooth and successful transaction.

For sellers, Roseville offers an excellent opportunity to cash in on the city's booming real estate market. However, to sell your home quickly and for the best possible price, you need an experienced real estate agent with a proven track record of success. That's where I come in. With years of experience in the Roseville real estate market, I know exactly what it takes to sell a home quickly and efficiently. From setting the right price to staging your home for maximum appeal, I'll work tirelessly to ensure a successful sale.

But the Roseville real estate market is more than just buying and selling homes. It's also about building strong relationships with clients, understanding their unique needs and goals, and providing the guidance and support they need to achieve their dreams. As a Remax real estate agent in Roseville, I'm committed to going above and beyond to provide my clients with exceptional service and support.

So whether you're buying, selling, or just looking for advice on the Roseville real estate market, don't hesitate to get in touch. As a Remax real estate agent in Roseville, I'm here to help you achieve your real estate goals and make your dreams a reality.

Roseville real estate market update spring 2023

I wanted to look into the stats as it's time for another update and the market slow down is noticeable.  Below is a chart showing home sales from last year compared to this year. It's safe to say the average amount of homes selling right roughly 1/2 of what the activity was last year.  Everyone in the industry will tell you we're feeling the pinch.  Companies are cutting back on overhead, supplies and manpower.

With this slow down though, what are we seeing with prices?  Homes are selling at 94% of original asking price.  This is something to take note.  Buyers are sensitive to their monthly payments.  The rise in interest rates has a direct effect in your monthly payment.  Lenders are trying to get creative with seller credits to buy down the rates so monthly payments are affordable; however, I'm not sure I would go that route.  In general, I think I would focus on the lower purchase price.  One can assume rates will come back down and you'll be able to refinance at that time.  I think it's a calculated risk.  Property taxes are based on sales price so I prefer to keep that as low as possible too.

This isn't a typical year so far.  A lot of people are staying put with the current rate they have on their house.  There's not much motivation to move right now.  Prices are holding strong considering how much rates have gone up.  Inventory in our area of active / pending is around 1400 units, where in years past it's around 4500 units.  That's roughly 1/3 of the activity that we're used to having.  I think we're about to see some inventory come available in the coming month.  The weather has likely kept people in place, we're going to have a late spring.  

I have several properties I'm currently working on that will be on the market soon.  If you're looking to make a move, feel free to contact me to help strategize a game plan.  I have good lenders I can recommend and explain  how to structure things to accommodate your timing. 

2023 real estate and market

 It's a little soon to be talking about 2023 without it only being speculative.  As of now we're seeing rates around 6.25% on a 30 year fixed.  We've been told the feds are going to cut back on the rate hikes as we're seeing positive signs in the economy with inflation.  We're not out of the woods yet!  

Home prices in Placer county are down 10-15% from the high in July 2022.  Prices over time will continue an upward trend.  This correction has mostly to do with supply / demand and of course the value of the dollar.  Inflation was caused by the government printing money and wreck less spending.  I don't want to get political here but I prefer our gov. to be conservative when it comes to economic policies.  To be transparent, I'm more liberal on other things.  Really though, I guarantee they don't manage their own finances like they do the tax payers money.   At what point is the deficit going to be unmanageable?  Are we already past the point of no return?  The scary answers to those questions I believe is that the interest payments alone are unsustainable and we'll default.  Next question is when?  I think the answer to that questions is scary too, not too far away... maybe within 5 years.  With the impending default, what will that do to our county?  Not an easy one to answer!  We're in a global economy now and defaulting will cause a ripple effect and likely take down other countries too.

It's only Jan 6th and my phone is already ringing.  I'm going to show a house in 45 minutes to a buyer.  Sellers are calling looking for a game plan.  I was curious before Christmas how this year would start out and it's going better than I expected.  There will be plenty of business out there.  People are always having to move.  Weather its for work, marriage/divorce, kids... there's always activity.  We are expecting more people to hunker down this year.  A lot of people like myself are in a cozy fixed rate mortgage and don't want to mess with anything in the 6's.  We're going to see roughly 30% of real estate agents get out of the business.  There's simply not enough deals to go around.  There's the ol saying too, 20% of the agents do 80% of the work.

For buyers out there, my advise is to run numbers with your lender.  If you don't have a good lender, I can recommend several.  Find your comfort spot on payments and that will dictate your price range.  Review all your options with the lender.  ARM loans, jumbo, bridge...  Over the past 20 years selling real estate here at Re/Max Roseville, I would stay away from ARM loans, but now I think it's a viable option.  Get in with a better rate and look to refi in 5 year.  Do an ARM loan with a seller credit to buy down the rate!  Get it in the 3's maybe.

With regards to selling a property in Placer county right now, we're looking at a downward trend in prices.  If I was a betting man, I would guess this downward trend will change come spring.  It's likely better for a seller to hold off from going on the market right now.  I put more power in the buyers position, but as I mentioned I think that will change.  We're accustom to seeing the market down in the winter and up in spring.  This trend is likely to repeat.

With all this said, I don't have a crystal ball.  We can only use the information we have at hand and guess as to what the future holds.  One thing I've learned is that it's all about perspective.  Eye of the beholder.  

I welcome a strong and productive 2023 selling houses in Roseville and Rocklin.  

Cherio!