3rd quarter real estate update for placer and sacramento county

August 6th 2019 - Real Estate Update - Placer

I like to do the quarterly updates and relay my observations as it keeps me more aware of what the market is doing.  As a full time real estate agent in Roseville we see trends and deal with things daily.  When you get down to it the market adjusts mostly on the basis of supply and demand.  Of course there are countless other factors that come into play, such as rates, job markets, economy as a whole, building fees, government regulations and taxes...
It's been 10 years now since I joined Remax in Roseville Ca.  I like reviewing the trend graphics as its a good visual representation of what the market is doing.  Below is a graph showing the number of homes that are active pending and sold for Placer county month over month.  Since winter we're seeing and increase in the amount of homes for sale and pendings and solds have dropped off.  July's numbers aren't showing up yet, but they will show the continuing trend.  Buyers will have a better chance of scoring that house they want to buy, but keep in mind the nice houses priced right will still gain multiple offers.
I think it's more interesting to see the graph of the value ranges where people have been buying houses and how that's changed since 2012.  As you can expect the 200's and 300's where hot back in 2012 and now it's 400's and 500's.  People have gained equity and are buying up and it's hard to even find properties sub 300k in Roseville / Rocklin area.
Interest rates have been great, they keep coming down too.  If you think about it, the feds need the rates low due to the national debt problem they have.  Interest payments alone are almost a run away train.  If rates were at 6%, I'm not sure we'd be able to pay.  My point is, don't worry about rates going up any time soon!
We are due for a market correction though.  Are we seeing that now?  I don't think so!  I think we're seeing the normal trend of the end of summer slow down.  We're getting closer to an election year and that seems to be a factor.  Trump will do what he can to keep the ball rolling but inevitably we'll see a correction.  For those investors out there, stack some chips.  In a couple years I think we'll see a good time to pick up some rentals.  For home buyers, find something and go with it as long as the payments are comfortable.  Even if the market drops 10-15 percent, over time 5-10 years you will be fine.

If you have any specific real estate questions, feel free to give me a call.  I work on commercial property, land developments, partition sales, trustee sales...  It's a fun business that is always changing!

 

Re/Max Gold - Chad Phillips
2998 Douglas Blvd Ste 125
Roseville, CA. 95661
916-390-1476
Real Estate Broker #01405825

Sacramento / Placer Real Estate Update May 2019

I've reviewed the metrics for both counties and they are roughly have the same market indicators.  We're in a stall or flat market right now.  Things are selling and around 50% of homes for sale are selling with multiple offers.  This is a strong indication; however, we've seen the prices flutter and max out.  Unless a property is priced right it will sit there and require price reductions.   Buyers are now more opt to write low ball offers and contingent offers to make the transition more favorable for them.  This is a clear indication of a change in the real estate market.  At the end of the day it comes down to affordability.  Either prices or rates have to come down.

Rates have come down, around 4% now.  It would seem low rates would help trigger buyers that are on the fence buying a house in Roseville; however, people seem to focus more on price than rates.  It makes sense.  I did notice something rare yesterday.  The treasury bonds for the 1 month were better then the 10 year.  For those that don't know what that means, it suggests that there is concern of economy.  Things have been going pretty good since Trump came into office, but it never lasts forever.  A recession is predicted by some in the next 18-24 months.  I'm in agreement, although I think it will be more of a slow down with GDP and a market correction.  If you look at the charts and what real estate prices have done since the bottom of  2012, its about 20% appropriation a year.  That's been a great ride, brought prices back to where there were in 2005, but 20% a year is unsustainable. 

Some investors are liquidating and looking to sit on cash.  It wasn't that long ago when things collapsed and no one seemed to have any cash to take advantage on the situation.  We learn from our mistakes.  I'm looking to pick up another rental property but I'm steadfast and want a deal like everyone else.  I did pick up a rental last year in Citrus Heights.  The numbers worked and it's cash flowing.  They are out there!  If you're looking for a good income property, I can help with that. 

Below is a chart for Placer county showing the houses for sale vs sold houses and pending.  In spring we tend to have an upward tend and downward in the winter.  This is looking very typical for the housing market in our area.

If you're a first time buyer, make sure your comfortable with the payment and make sure you get a good real estate agent to help guide you so you don't end up with a lemon.  Happy to help if you have questions!

Chad Phillips Real Estate Broker Associate  RE/MAX GOLD 916-390-1476 | 2998 Douglas Blvd #125 Roseville CA.  95661 |chad.remaxgold@gmail.com | www.RealEstate-Roseville.com LIC # 01405825

Top listing agent in December and 2019 Forecast

Here we are 2019 folks.  I typically have a slow down this time of year but I've been able to ride the wave and stay busy.  Overall the market is certainly doing its cyclical thing here in Sacramento and Placer county.  Good time for home buyers in my opinion.  Demand is down and we're rarely seeing multiple offers.  We've seen the Sacramento real estate market prices pull back over the last 6 months.  A small correction was in order, the year over year gains we've had since 2012 are unsustainable.  I foresee the Roseville and Rocklin real estate market picking back up come spring time so if you're a buyer, my advise is not to wait.  Get a game plan put together with an experience broker like myself and a good local lender. ( I can recommend several ).  For sellers, I think we're going to see a lot of inventory come on this year.  I think there's a number of people fed up with California and looking to take there money and run.  I already know of some investors that are looking to liquidate. 

  Even though the feds raised rates 1/4 pt last month mortgage rates took a dip.  Go figure!  Loan programs are loosening too.  This makes me a little nervous after what we went thru last time.  I understand the greed and to keep the party going; however, that just a recipe for a strong hangover.  Let me be clear though, loans aren't anything like they were back in 2006, so we're not going to repeat that same mistake.  We might see the market peak in 2019.  Too much uncertainty in our economy.  The Dow is like a ping bong ball, government is shut down and all this over a wall.

At the end of the day folks, if you can afford to buy and not be house poor, then do it.  I don't want to see you with a 50% DTI...  Under 40 is preferred!  Let me help find you a good house and negotiate a better deal.