Re/Max Gold - Chad Phillips
10/8/2024
We're officially in Fall now and we're seeing the Roseville real estate market holding steady. Inventory is picking up so we're seeing a more balanced equilibrium with supply and demand. New construction is still hot and heavy; however, there are a certain amount of buyers out there like myself that refuse to buy new construction with the minimal lot sizes that they are doing now. It would be nice to know what percentage of people refuse to consider new construction due to the lot sizes, anyways...
We're about 30 days away from the election. It makes sense that folks are wanting to hold steady and see how things unfold. Our economy will look drastically different depending on who wins this presidential election. No one knows how things will really boil out either way. Truthfully, I think Trump will be the best choice for our economy and country as a whole but I've personally have done well under the democrats too. I just hope that we don't see home prices plunge again like they did in 2008. I fully understand the circumstances that came into play with the mortgage crisis. We're in a different situation now; however, I firmly believe we could experience the same thing if inflation isn't under control. Different situation, same result! We cannot spend our way out of a market crash. The solution is simple but no one will deal with it. At the nucleus its the government spending that needs to be managed. There's no oversight or penalties for them to just print more money, and raise taxes. I liked when Warren Buffet said he could fix the deficit in 5 min. "Congress doesn't get a paycheck if they don't balance the budget". Hold them accountable! It's not a crazy notion but how do you get the folks who make the laws enact one like that?
What are home prices going to do this winter in Roseville, CA? I can tell you that there is decades of data that suggest home prices will come down around 3-5%. This is a cyclical thing and pretty predictable. The question is, what can we expect next year? I am not going to answer that, that would be a fools errand and a guess at best. I can say inflation is the key here and what interest rates look like. I foresee demand to hold stead so that's good, but affordability needs to be there too.
I don't see any need to panic, seems the feds are keeping a close eye on interest rates. I think most people are holding steady to see how things unfold. Hell, we could be 6 months away from WWIII. If Kamala wins I think it would be bad globally. I don't think she will be able to temper things or command attention. Trump has shown that he has no reservations when dealing with other countries in a firm and demanding way. When it comes to terrorist organizations, they know to fear him. I don't think Kamala will have the same effect.
I wanted to talk more about real estate and I will but our economy has direct effects in how people are able to afford to live. We haven't had move up buyers in many years now as interest rates have been on the rise for 4 years now. Rates historically are good around 7% yet you cannot ignore the Roseville home prices. If you just look at rates and say yeah, they are good you are correct but look at the big picture. What were mortgage payments historically and now? It used to be your mortgage was around 25% of your take home pay, now its around 50%. Double! Most loans max out at 48% LTV. Are banks going to raise that so people can buy a house? Would that lead to another 2008?
The DOJ laws that went into effect Aug 17th 2024 are going as expected. We're adapting and doing more paperwork. I think the whole thing was a money grab by attorneys and completely unnecessary. More lawsuits will follow and that I can promise. It's business as usual thought, we simply negotiate the selling agents commission in the purchase agreement now. I know we don't call it commission anymore but I'm old school now. God... I've been at this over 20 years now.
I'm confident that 2024 will be another good year for me. I'm going to prepay my office bill. I only prepay my bill if I think it's going to save me money in the long run, being a good year and I sell a lot of homes in Roseville. I was ranked in the top 3 of best Roseville real estate agents in 2018. It's a silly website, but still was kewl. I have accumulated a lot of real estate knowledge over the years. There's things like partition actions. I've been working partitions for 10 years now and work with multiple different attorney firms around Sacramento and Placer county.
No one reads my rants and I know I'm all over the place. Kinda feels more like a journal and therapeutic for me.
