Placer County 1st Quarter Update - Real Estate

Re/Max Gold - Chad Phillips

It should be to no surprise that our real estate market is strong and continuing upward.  I pasted 3 graphs below to help illustrate what is more precisely occurring.   I want to point out on the last graph.  The sales price vs list price for the month of April was at 100%.  This is something to take note of and it means that properties are being priced appropriately and there's little to no room to negotiate as a buyer.  Well priced properties are selling over asking with multiple offers.  

You can see on the 2nd graph that the average price sqft has continued to climb with only a little dip in Dec. 

We have the influx of buyer from the bay area and the millennial buyers are a growing market segment.  It looks like we'll have a continued strong year, too early to say for next year.  I'm always skeptical because I know the real estate market is cyclical and we're about due for a correction.

To bring this current, I've notice a slow down over the past week or so.  I think its attributed to all the graduations and holiday weekend coming up.

If you have any real estate questions, feel free to contact me.

For Sale Vs Sold & Pending

Average Price Per Sqft

Average Days on Market / Sales Price vs. List price

Chad Phillips Real Estate Broker Associate, Re/Max Gold 916-390-1476 | 2998 Douglas Blvd #125 Roseville CA. 95661 | chad.remaxgold@gmail.com | www.RealEstate-Roseville.com  LIC # 01405825    Get your own email signature

Spring time real estate update placer county

Seems like it's been a while since I did an update but it was only a month ago.  Also feels like a lot has changed in that time.  The weather is finally coming around to resemble spring/summer and so is our real estate.  Things are picking up quickly.  I was wondering if the influx of inventory was going to throw the balance off, but we see to be in the same equilibrium as before, so the buyer pool as jumped up too.
From this time last year we're looking at around 3-5% growth in equity.  That's a good market indicator that we're in for another good year; however, there are a few things that concern me for next year.  Right now we're seeing the 10 year treasury bonds at 2.8% and the 30 year at 3%.  They're getting closer and closer.  Every time I can recall when these numbers inverse, we see a market correct. (notice I didn't want to say depression)  Another factor that's probably going to put the breaks on prices is interest rates.  A stronger economy will benefit overall from a raise in the rates but it will effect the purchasing power of everyone.  At the end of the day it's all about the monthly payment.  If I could buy a million dollar house for 2,000 a month, sign me up. 
I just put two houses on the market in west roseville, 95747 and both sold relatively fast.  One in the first week, and the other in two weeks.  The buyers are out there, seem like we have a fair amount of bay area buyers.  To follow up on the point above about the market correction next year, I don't think the amount of buyers from the bay will sustain us.  Those buyers tend to be in the mid market range, 400-600K.  Most of them are buying down and paying cash.  For the lower end, under 400K we will have plenty of competition, but the biggest hit will be above 750k.  The new tax law will also come into play with the higher priced properties.  Only being able to write off 10K a year in taxes is real.  My house is only 450K and after sales tax I'm maxing out right at 10K.  If we go and buy anything bigger then we'll loose out on the tax.  It's not really a concern for me; however, for the people out there will million dollar homes, they're going to notice it come tax time.
Here's my advise: if you're looking for a primary then buy and lock a good rate.  For investments, I would sit on cash until the market changes.  It's tough to find anything out there that cash flows.  You have to put down 20-25% for it to pay for itself.  I'm not a fan at that cost.
No one know, and I hope I'm wrong but we seem to be in a 7 year cycle.  The market started its upward trend in 2012.  That puts us at 2019 for a correction.  Is this exact science, of course not but we're due.  Been going up and up to where costs are exceeding jobs and sustainability.  To keep this going we're going to need some more creative loans.  In fact, they're already starting that game again so the writing is on the wall.  I have several investors right now liquidating!
If you're looking to buy or sell, give me a call.

Re/Max Gold - Chad Phillips

916-390-1476

Placer & Sacramento Real Estate Update

When you get down to it, the value of a commodity is derived by supply and demand.  In Placer and Sacramento area we've seen a low supply of houses for quite some time.  In a typical "normal" market we expect the amount of inventory to last 2-3 months.  In the last 3 years or so it's been below 2 months of inventory and closer to 1 month. 

These figures take into account the oddball houses, over priced properties, land, and the high end multi million dollar properties that tend to take a year to sell.  So, when you're looking for a 2,000 sqft single story in Roseville you shouldn't be surprised that they go like hot cakes.  We're seeing values of these types of properties, ie... large lot, single story with a pool going well above expected appraised value.  When buyers are willing to throw in cash to cover the difference, that's what it take sometimes to seal the deal.  These listings are getting multiple offers driving the prices up.  On this note: I have a nice single story in W. Roseville coming on the market in about 2 weeks.  It's 2200 sqft single story by Foothills/Junction. 

Back to the story, I think we'll see a continued increase of inventory this spring.  It normally picks up this time of year; however, so the the amount of buyer so we could very well stay at this equilibrium.  Other factors are the feds, jacking up rates.  For folks like myself, I'm happy with where I live and I'm at 3.5% fixed 20 year.  I really don't have a desire to move!  I think there's a growing number of people that want to stay put and not rock the boat.  There is a point thou, that people will decide to sell, take the money and run.  More and more people are doing just that and leaving the state all together. 

My forecast is simple, we're towards the of this roller coaster ride again.  I think we're going to see market correction again, and as soon as this winter.  Now I'm not suggesting a crash or anything like we went thru before, but just a simple 5-7% reduction.  Enough to notice that 2018 was another peak!  Only time will tell, I would like for this to continue, don't get me wrong.  Business has been great. 

Feel free to contact me if you have questions.
Re/Max Gold - Chad Phillips

2998 Douglas Blvd #125
Roseville, CA. 95661
916-390-1476
www.realestate-roseville.com

Roseville Real Estate - Market Update

This is about the time when I thought the market would pick back up, right after the Superbowl... and it has!
We're seeing inventory increase as people are looking to get their house listed and sold before the spring flood of properties.
With the increase of inventory coming and a likelihood of increased interest rates, will we see a drop in home prices?  I don't think so, not here in Sacramento / Roseville area anyways.  I believe our demand for housing will be in align with supply.  We have a lot of people coming here from the Bay and other areas that see us as an affordable place to live.
I'm getting ready to put 6 houses on the market.  Winter is a nice time for us agents as things slow down, but I'm looking forward to getting out and selling more houses in Roseville.
I have a great 2200 sqft single story in Roseville that I'll be listing shortly.  Those single story homes are in high demand.  Currently there's only 7 houses listed in MLS that are single story in that price range 450-500K and 5 of them are new construction which we all know have zero lot lines and no landscaping.

December 2017 - End of year - Roseville real estate update

Several things going on in our crazy world.  Feds just raised the rate a quarter point.  This was to be expected, 3rd time this year they've raised it.  Our economy is doing well and expectations are positive.  There's mixed reviews and feelings about the tax bill about to pass.  I'm optimistic that this will stimulate the economy even more, create new jobs and better opportunities for people.  The simple idea of more jobs is great, but more good paying jobs is the key.  It will probably take a year for us to see the effects of the tax cuts.  2018 is going to be a very telling year for the Trump administration. 
Now, back to our local economy and real estate market.  It's a slow time of year for escrows.  I have a half dozen active buyers; however, they've either seen everything out there or there's nothing to show them.  The sellers I have are mostly waiting for spring to list.  Last year I recall everything kick started early, right after the superbowl.  I'm telling my sellers to be on standby.  As a seller, a low inventory is going to help attract a higher sales price.  I'm looking to get several new listings on mid feb.  I have a great one in Folsom, right behind Broadstone for 450K, and another one in Orangevale that will be ready for 350K. 
I hope everyone has a good holiday vacation, a good Christmas and new years.  You'll get another update from your Roseville Real Estate Agent come the new year.

Chad Phillips Real Estate Broker Associate  RE/MAX GOLD 916-390-1476 | 2998 Douglas Blvd #125 Roseville CA. 95661 |chad.remaxgold@gmail.com | www.RealEstate-Roseville.com

High End homes in Placer county, El Dorado county

In all honesty, I haven't typically dealt with home above the 1 Million mark.  It's a niche market and those homes in El Dorado Hills, serrano and granite bay Los Lagos are highly sought after.  There are agent who live in those communities and have a pretty good lock down on the area.  Recently I got a nice big listing up in Auburn CA.  When I listed the house for sale in auburn, I thought we were listing it at a strong price per sqft.  It's an 8200 sqft custom house.  This thing has all 2x6 construction, 7 car garage, 2 laundry rooms, theater, wine room, views of folsom lake and downtown sacramento...
We went on at 1.6M.  That was 4 months ago!  We're now listed the house for sale in Auburn at 1.45M.  We have had some interest and showing; however, it seems people only want to buy it if they're able to steal it.  I'm talking prices where I would buy it before selling to them. 
On another note:  I was referred some high end buyer from one of my real estate investors in Roseville CA.  After meeting with them and showing them 5-6 houses in Serrano and around El Dorado Hills, I've come to get more familiar with the high end market.  It's a slow going!  The economy is going, stock market is strong but people are hesitate to go out and buy that million dollar home.
I ran some searched on the computer to see how much has actually sold and in pending status and it was surprising to see that the amount of sales was way below what I had expected to find.  There are some really good deals out there now in the high end market.  Houses that you cannot build for the cost, yet my buyers are skeptical and hesitate to pull the trigger and buy a house in granite bay.
Even thou I'm know as the Roseville real estate agent, I'm ready to take on the houses for sale in Granite bay.  This could all be timing.  It's normal for things to slow down around the holidays. 

2018 forecast

Our housing market for Placer and Sacramento County.

Almost another year down and we're seeing one of the best years in real estate.  Values have continued to go up here in Roseville.  The roseville real estate market has been consistently going up with the influx of buyers from the bay area.  As we're in the thick of winter now, the market has took a slow down; however, this is typical this time of year.  Buyers should be out now to get a good buy.  Come spring time, granite bay and rocklin real estate prices will go up around 5%.
Personally I've been looking high and low for a good income property and it's tough.  Much more favorable would be an owner occupied house in Roseville that will rent for around 2,000 a month.

I just found out that our Roseville Re/Max office has just sold over 415M in sales this year.  That's pretty good for 85 agents.  Last year we were at 350M.  We might have picked up a little, I know I've doubled my business, but you have to account for the rise in prices too.

Back to the market...
I have several clients that are listening to me and holding off from selling right. now.  If you're able to wait until spring time, then you should get a better price.

My projection will be that we'll see around 5% appreciation with a downturn in values come 2019.  I think the real estate cycle that we're used to every 7 years has been warped and extended to 10-12 year cycles now.

Here's an update put out by realtor.com

New homes are expected to be a “primary driver of sales in 2018,” as 1.33 million housing starts are predicted next year—up from 1.22 million in 2017, according to Freddie Mac’s September Outlook report, which gauges future real estate activity. Total home sales are expected to increase about 2 percent from 2017 to 2018, according to the report.

Economists also predict that the uptick in housing starts, coupled with a moderate increase in mortgage rates, will help slow the run-up in home prices next year. Freddie Mac forecasts a 4.9 percent increase in home prices in 2018, lower than the 6.3 percent growth seen so far this year. Mortgage rates also are up from near-record lows in 2016, prompting predictions that refinancings will fall to 25 percent of mortgage activity in 2018—the lowest share since 1990, according to Fannie Mae.

Still, homeowners likely will continue building equity next year. In the second quarter of 2017, the dollar volume of equity cashed out was $15 million, up $1.2 million from the first quarter. As home prices rise, cash-out activity has been rising, too.

“The economic environment remains favorable for housing and mortgage markets,” says Freddie Mac chief economist Sean Becketti. “For several years, we have had moderate economic growth of about two percent a year, solid job gains, and low mortgage interest rates. We forecast those conditions to persist into next year.”