Jan 2020

Market Update with Chad Phillips 

Re/Max Gold Roseville

We're seeing the market start slow this year.  This is typical; however, what we're not used to seeing is inventory this low.  Generally I'm of the opinion for my sellers to wait until spring time, or at least after the Superbowl to list their house for sale.  This is the first year where I'm thinking a seller will potentially gain more on the sale of their home by listing now and beating the usual influx of homes that tend to come up for sale in April/May. Interest rates are near record lows as well.  With rates in the low to high 3's, it's certainly an incentive for buyers to make the move.  Rates are also encouraging some folks to say put and refinance.  I'm currently in that boat!  I'm looking to do a cash out refi on my primary to pay off a rental property.  The numbers make sense! Another benefit of a refi could be to shave off years on the loan.  Going from a 30 year to a 20 year or even 15 year loan and your payment is roughly the same.  That will save you a lot of money over time. As for the coming year, 2020 looks to be another year of gains in property values.  There are several factors that indicate that we're on a solid path, notably the jobs reports, low inventory, interest rates and overall strength of the economy.  I do foresee some factors that are posed to negatively effect us though.  This rent control bill will likely have a negative impact.  The intention of the bill is to keep rents low; however, I think the 5% a year cap is only going to encourage landlords to adhere to this an impose the 5% a year.  Another proposition on the table is getting rid of prop 13, but they disguise it by this title: California Tax on Commercial and Industrial Properties for Education and Local Government Funding Initiative.  If this goes thru it will drive more businesses out of California.  If commercial property owners property taxes skyrocket, it's going to translate to higher leases.  It might take a couple years to hit home, but when leases come up for renewal we'll start to see more offices buildings empty.  The lack of common sense here is disturbing, and unfortunately deliberate. For what it's worth, I'm predicting a good 2020 and then a market correction in 2021.  Regardless of who wins the presidency!  The market has rebounded from the bottom at 2012 to surpass values of the past peak in 2005.  There are no indicators of a crash like we had before, but a price correction is what I'm preparing for.  Only time will tell!  Keep your real estate investments conservative at this point.  If you need help running the numbers on a project, feel free to contact me and let's see if it's viable and worth doing.  Have a great 2020 folks.